And The Oscar Goes To,,,

It's Oscar Day - one of my favorite days of the year. I have a special menu consisting of my favorite pates, cheeses, breads and desserts. I have a bottle of champagne chilling in the fridge. My Oscar sheet is taped to the wall in the living room with my picks circled in black. Everyone who knows me knows to call before 5pm because the phone is officially off at 5pm. Oscar Day is sacred to me and everyone in my circle knows it.
(br>Yes, I recognize that with everything going on in the world, the Oscars don't mean that much. I know it's going to be long and tedious at some points. I know the speeches will be almost all the same given the two minutes the winners are given. There will be a tribute to those film people who died last year. There will be presentations I hate and songs I've never heard. Yes, I know all of this but still I watch every year and love every minute of it.

This will be my 50th Oscar celebration. And over the years, I've developed some insights about who will be taking home the golden bald guy we call Oscar.

Best Acting - Any actor who plays someone with a mental or physical defect or illness wins. Geoffrey Rush, Daniel Day Lewis, Holly Hunter, Al Pacino, Dustin Hoffman, Tom Hanks -to name a few, have all won playing someone with some sort of ailment. Pacino, who was great in all the Godfather movies, never won for any of them but won for playing blind in Scent of a Woman. It wasn't even close to his best performance but he was playing blind. This tells me Matthew McConaughey will win as an AIDS striken man in Dallas Buyers Club.

The same can be said for women who are nominated for Woody Allen movies. Think what you will about Woody, he writes great roles for women and his ladies usually win. Cate Blanchett doesn't have a care in the world tonight. She's bringing Oscar home...again.

Best Supporting Acting - Movies follow life in this category so this is where the Black nominee usually wins. There are more winning Black actors in this category than any other. Beginning with Hattie McDaniel in Gone with the Wind and ending with Octavia Spencer in The Help, the number of winning Black actors in this category includes Morgan Freeman, Louis Gossett, Jr., Jennifer Hudson, Whoopi Goldberg, Cuba Gooding, Jr., and Monique. This is no way saying they were undeserving of their wins; it's just a reflection of Hollywood. As we marvel at what Lupita Nyong'o will be wearing, I hope she's practicing her acceptance speech.

Documentary feature or short - Any documentary that is about or features the Jewish Holocaust will win. That's not to say they are not without merit but there are a lot of really great documentaries out there that could use the boost an Oscar win would give. I haven't seen a lot of the nominated films this year but I do know that The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life will win given its subject is a 106 year old Holocaust survivor.

Best Song - This category has become one of the most surprising categories in recent years. Normally the best song was one with great radio play or something by a classical composer. Now it's populated with winners under the age of 40 whom many Oscar voters don't know. I would imagine it's because the musical branch of the academy is filled with people under the age of 40 and the musicians vote for their peers. One of my favorite Oscar moments was watching Queen Latifah annoucing rap group Three 6 Mafia winning for It's Hard Out There for a Pimp from the movie Hustle and Flow. It still gives me a kick. A close rival to that moment was Barbara Streisand announcing Eminem. As we say in my house, you could have bought her cheap.

Make-up and Costume Design - The more elaborate the make-up and costume, the better chance of a win. I think this is a bit of a cheat. It's easy to make-up a monster. After all creating a monster is subjective. It's also easy to create costumes for a period piece. But the real artistry for me is making up and costuming a character from the past 20-30 years. Although there are loads of pictures about the 60's-90's, there is no solid historical frame. So doing these times periods mean more difficult research. Doing it right separates the great from the really good. I don't really have a choice in this category. Just 50 years of watching people create Victorian era design with 20th and 21st century know-how.

Best Picture - The winner will be 12 Years a Slave. First let me say that I will scream my head off when it wins for I believe it should win. However I recognize a win is a two-fer for the Hollywood voters. First the Academy can pat itself on the back for voting for this film. They can say it proves Hollywood is not racist (which is a load of bull). After all, the cast is predominantly Black although almost all the speaking roles are done by Whites. Second, this is type of historical film the academy loves. Like so many other winning films, there is grand cinematography, classical music, wonderful acting and great direction. The film is visceral in more ways than one. It caused me great anger and anquish. It pushed every button. And in the end, good triumphs over evil.

Those are my predictions for tonight. You may agree or think I'm totally off the mark. You probably think I'm giving in to the worst of the worst by writing a post about the Oscars. To paraphrase Bill Joel, "you may be right. I may be crazy. But I just might be the lunatic you're looking for." Enjoy your night. I'm certainly going to enjoy mine. Champagne, anyone?